UNCERTAIN INFERENCE

 PHL/CSC 217/417

Henry E. Kyburg

 

HENRY KYBURG

Fall, 2005

Tue, Thur 11:05--12:20

Office Hours

Tue, Thur: 10:30--11:00

in Latt 520

Wed: 2:00 - 2:45

in CSB 720

AND BY APPOINTMENT
 

Outside of Mathematics, and perhaps Philosophy, all interesting inference is uncertain. It is uncertain because it proceeds from uncertain premises, and the uncertainty of the premises infects the conclusion, or because it makes use of principles of inference that are not always truth preserving, or both. Our concern in this course is primarily with uncertain inference in the latter sense: with principles of inference that are not always truth preserving. Our concern is not with MAKING such inferences but with the LOGIC of such inferences.

One may study such Logic from two points of view: The point of view of a handbook, which seeks to make various approaches to this logic understandible while leaving the details to separate study, and the point of view of a text which seeks to inculcate facility in the use of a preferred version of the logic.

The book emphasises the approach of a handbook. The lectures will focus on learning the system of evidential probability.

 

 Class Participation: 10%

Homework: 20%

 There WILL be two examinations:

30%

 Term Research Paper.

40%

OFFICIAL TEXT: KYBURG AND TENG, UNCERTAIN INFERENCE

Cambridge University Press, 2001

TYPOS!

 Useful secondary sources:

Rudolf Carnap, The Logical Foundations of Probability

Richard Jeffrey, The Logic of Decision

Davis Baird, Inductive Logic

Maria Carla Galavotti, Philosophical Introduction to Probability

 GRADUATE STUDENTS:

"Extra Requirements" consist of an oral presentation, and, of course, a longer and more sophisticated final paper.

Max (The Enforcer)

 Some of these pictures, as well as the background logo, reflect the activities of Kyburg Black Angus Farms

 

DATE

 TOPIC

 HOMEWORK

 NOTES
R, 9/1/05  Introduction    
T, 9/6/05  CHAPTER ONE   LOGIC
R, 9/8/05
  History
 EX 2, 6, 11  
T, 9/13/05  CHAPTER TWO; logic   PROBABILITY
R, 9/15/05
Begin Probability
 Chapter Two, EX 2, 8  
T, 9/20/05  CHAPTER THREE  EX 7, 13, 20 STATISTICS
R, 9/22/05
 Probability
 EX 26, 35, 38  
T, 9/27/05  CHAPTER FOUR    
R, 9/29/05
 Interpretations
 EX 3, 7 10 ACCEPTANCE
T, 10/4/05  CHAPTER FIVE    

Susannah (The REAL enforcer)

 

DATE

TOPIC

 HOMEWORK

 NOTE
R, 10/6/05
 Non-Standard
 EX1, 6,9  
T, 10/11/05  CHAPTER SIX   NONMON
R, 10/13/05
 Nonmonotonic
 EX 4, 6, 7  
T,10/18/05  Examination 1 open book, open notes, mainly on probability, interpretations...  
R, 10/20/05      
T, 10/25/05
CHAPTER NINE
   
R, 10/27/05 Evidential Probability    
T, 11/1/05
 
   

 

Being rational is often an alternative to going head to head! 

 

 

R, 11/3/05
Evidential Probability
   
T, 11/8/05
 
  Ex 1, 4, 6
R, 11/10/05 CHAPTER TEN    
T, 11/15/05
Semantics
 Ex 1, 2, 7  
R, 11/17/05

CHAPTER ELEVEN

   
T, 11/22/05

Applications

 EX 1, 3  
T, 11/29/05
THANKSGIVING
   
R, 11/24/05 CHAPTER EIGHT Ex 1, 3, 8  
T, 11/29/05 statistics    
R, 12/1/05 CHAPTER TWELVE    
T, 12/6/05 review    
R, 12/8/05 EXAMINATION  GOOD LUCK  

But what shall I write about?

There are a few sample topics at the end of the page.

 

DRAFT OF FINAL PAPER: (REQUIRED FOR WRITING CREDIT) (OPTIONAL FOR OTHERS)

DUE NOON FRIDAY DECMBER 16

FINAL PAPER DUE NOON MONDAY DECEMBER 20

Suzannah on the left. Zorro on the right.
   

 

PAPER TOPICS (examples only)

 The Justification of Induction.
 Discuss measurement error in detail; how do we know what we know about it?
 Discuss probability and inference by analogy.
 State and examine the arguments for Bayesianism.
 Defend or attack the thesis: deductive logic is sufficient for everyithing.
 Provide a critical exposition of "probabilistic logic."
 Is legal reasoning probabilistic?
 What is the controversy about uncertain inference between logicalists and probabilisits?
 Discuss the pros and cons of the reducibility of default logic to probability.
 Suppose the negation of a justification in default logic is highly probable. Then what?
 Is thre a role for more than one interpretation of probability?
 What is the role of causality in inductive inference?
 What is the difference between the "vice" of gambling and the "virtue" of insurance?

 CSC project: Design a data structure to represent knowledge in such a way that evidential probability can be applied to it. Devise an algorithm for doing that. (Pseudocode is fine; a working program isn't necessary!) But wht IS necessary is a detailed account of how the idea should work, and a careful argument supporting the thesis that it WOULD work.
 
Writing resources:
The College Writing Center provides help at all stages of the writing process(from brainstorming to drafting to revising) on any writing project. Students can sign up for a one-hour appointment with an experienced graduate-student Consultant at the Writing Program office, Rush Rhees G-121, or call 273-3584. In addition, students may visit The Undergraduate Writing Fellows, who offer critical peer feedback and are available for walk-in hours at various campus
locations. For more information on all writing resources visit:
http://writing.rochester.edu